Will Trump bring even more war to the Middle East? The Bullet Point Explanation

The US president-elect’s pragmatic approach and ironclad support for Israel could escalate tensions.

Donald Trump's previous term was marked by strong support for Israel:

Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

Moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem.

Acknowledgment of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

Facilitation of the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Iranian Policy during Trump’s First Term:

Trump withdrew from the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) in 2018.

He imposed severe economic sanctions on Iran, affecting its oil industry and banking system.

Reactions to Trump's Re-election in the Middle East:

Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed enthusiasm for Trump’s return, anticipating continued robust support for Israel’s security and strategic interests.

Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Türkiye: Leaders expressed approval, expecting a more pragmatic US policy focused on economic and strategic interests rather than moralizing on human rights.

Iran: Iran views Trump's return with apprehension, expecting no revival of diplomatic efforts and likely increased tensions due to Trump's previous hardline policies against Iran.

Qatar's Concerns:

Qatar views Trump’s return with concern due to his previous support for the Saudi-led blockade against Qatar in 2017.

General Approach to Middle East Policy: Trump's policy has been characterized by:

Unwavering support for Israel.

A 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran through sanctions and strategic partnerships aimed at containing Iranian influence.

Strong economic and security alliances with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

A pragmatic and somewhat transactional approach to diplomacy, prioritizing strategic interests over human rights concerns.

Diplomatic Style and Relationships:

Trump's personal rapport with leaders like Netanyahu, Mohammed bin Salman, and Erdogan might influence his Middle East strategy, focusing on direct leader-to-leader nego=a=ons and personal diplomacy.